A Survey of Methods for Data Inclusion in System Dynamics Models

In 1980, Jay Forrester enumerated three types of data needed to develop the structure and decision rules in models: numerical, written and mental data, in increasing order of importance. While this prioritization is appropriate, it is numerical data that has experienced the most development in the 25 years since Forester made his enumeration. In this paper, we’ll focus on how numerical data can be incorporated into models when written and mental data are known, and survey the techniques for doing so

Understanding & Modeling State Stability: Exploiting System Dynamics

The potential loss of state stability in various parts of the world is a source of threat to U.S. national security. Every case is unique, but there are common processes. Accordingly, we develop a system dynamics model of state stability by representing the nature and dynamics of ‘loads’ generated by insurgency activities, on the one hand, and by articulating the core features of state resilience and its ‘capacity’ to withstand these ‘loads’, on the other. The problem is to determine and ‘predict’ when threats to stability override the resilience of the state and, more important, to anticipate propensities for ‘tipping points’, namely conditions under which small changes in anti-regime activity can generate major disruptions. On this basis, we then identify appropriate actionable mitigation factors to decrease the likelihood of ‘tipping’ and enhance prospects for stability

Safety of celecoxib and nonselective nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: results of the phase 4 registry

Background This study aimed to assess long-term safety and developmental data on juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) patients treated in routine clinical practice with celecoxib or nonselective nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (nsNSAIDs). Methods Children aged ≥2 to \u3c18 years with rheumatoid-factor–positive or –negative polyarthritis, persistent or extended oligoarthritis, or systemic arthritis were enrolled into this prospective, observational, multicenter standard-of-care registry. Eligible patients were newly or recently prescribed (≤6 months) an nsNSAID or celecoxib. Enrolled patients were followed to the end of the study, whether they remained on the original NSAID, switched, or discontinued therapy altogether. All adverse events (AEs) regardless of severity were captured in the database. Results A total of 274 patients (nsNSAID, n = 219; celecoxib, n = 55) were observed for 410 patient-years of observation. Naproxen, meloxicam, and nabumetone were the most frequently used nsNSAIDs. At baseline, the celecoxib group was older, had a numerically longer median time since diagnosis, and a numerically higher proportion of patients with a history of gastrointestinal-related NSAID intolerance. AEs reported were those frequently observed with NSAID treatment and were similar across groups (nsNSAIDs: 52.0%; celecoxib: 52.9%). Twelve unique patients experienced a total of 18 serious AEs; the most frequent were infections, and none was attributed to NSAID use. Conclusions The safety profile of celecoxib and nsNSAIDs appears similar overall. The results from this registry, ongoing pharmacovigilance, and the phase 3 trial that led to the approval of celecoxib for children with JIA provide evidence that the benefit-risk for celecoxib treatment in JIA remains positive

Recommended Priorities for Research on Ecological Impacts of Ocean and Coastal Acidification in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic

The estuaries and continental shelf system of the United States Mid-Atlantic are subject to ocean acidification driven by atmospheric CO2, and coastal acidification caused by nearshore and land-sea interactions that include biological, chemical, and physical processes. These processes include freshwater and nutrient input from rivers and groundwater; tidally-driven outwelling of nutrients, inorganic carbon, alkalinity; high productivity and respiration; and hypoxia. Hence, these complex dynamic systems exhibit substantial daily, seasonal, and interannual variability that is not well captured by current acidification research on Mid-Atlantic organisms and ecosystems. We present recommendations for research priorities that target better understanding of the ecological impacts of acidification in the U. S. Mid-Atlantic region. Suggested priorities are: 1) Determining the impact of multiple stressors on our resource species as well as the magnitude of acidification; 2) Filling information gaps on major taxa and regionally important species in different life stages to improve understanding of their response to variable temporal scales and sources of acidification; 3) Improving experimental approaches to incorporate realistic environmental variability and gradients, include interactions with other environmental stressors, increase transferability to other systems or organisms, and evaluate community and ecosystem response; 4) Determining the capacity of important species to acclimate or adapt to changing ocean conditions; 5) Considering multi-disciplinary, ecosystem-level research that examines acidification impacts on biodiversity and biotic interactions; and 6) Connecting potential acidification-induced ecological impacts to ecosystem services and the economy. These recommendations, while developed for the Mid-Atlantic, can be applicable to other regions will help align research towards knowledge of potential larger-scale ecological and economic impacts

A (sub)millimetre study of dense cores in Orion B9

We aim to further constrain the properties and evolutionary stages of dense cores in Orion B9. The central part of Orion B9 was mapped at 350 micron with APEX/SABOCA. A sample of nine cores in the region were observed in C17O(2-1), H13CO+(4-3) (towards 3 sources), DCO+(4-3), N2H+(3-2), and N2D+(3-2) with APEX/SHFI. These data are used in conjunction with our previous APEX/LABOCA 870-micron dust continuum data. Many of the LABOCA cores show evidence of substructure in the higher-resolution SABOCA image. In particular, we report on the discovery of multiple very low-mass condensations in the prestellar core SMM 6. Based on the 350-to-870 micron flux density ratios, we determine dust temperatures of ~7.9-10.8 K, and dust emissivity indices of ~0.5-1.8. The CO depletion factors are in the range ~1.6-10.8. The degree of deuteration in N2H+ is ~0.04-0.99, where the highest value (seen towards the prestellar core SMM 1) is, to our knowledge, the most extreme level of N2H+ deuteration reported so far. The level of HCO+ deuteration is about 1-2%. We also detected D2CO towards two sources. The detection of subcondensations within SMM 6 shows that core fragmentation can already take place during the prestellar phase. The origin of this substructure is likely caused by thermal Jeans fragmentation of the elongated parent core. A low depletion factor and the presence of gas-phase D2CO in SMM 1 suggest that the core chemistry is affected by the nearby outflow. The very high N2H+ deuteration in SMM 1 is likely to be remnant of the earlier CO-depleted phase.Comment: 20 pages, 10 figures, 10 tables. Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysic

Safety of celecoxib and nonselective nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: results of the phase 4 registry

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to assess long-term safety and developmental data on juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) patients treated in routine clinical practice with celecoxib or nonselective nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (nsNSAIDs). METHODS: Children aged ≥2 to <18 years with rheumatoid-factor–positive or –negative polyarthritis, persistent or extended oligoarthritis, or systemic arthritis were enrolled into this prospective, observational, multicenter standard-of-care registry. Eligible patients were newly or recently prescribed (≤6 months) an nsNSAID or celecoxib. Enrolled patients were followed to the end of the study, whether they remained on the original NSAID, switched, or discontinued therapy altogether. All adverse events (AEs) regardless of severity were captured in the database. RESULTS: A total of 274 patients (nsNSAID, n = 219; celecoxib, n = 55) were observed for 410 patient-years of observation. Naproxen, meloxicam, and nabumetone were the most frequently used nsNSAIDs. At baseline, the celecoxib group was older, had a numerically longer median time since diagnosis, and a numerically higher proportion of patients with a history of gastrointestinal-related NSAID intolerance. AEs reported were those frequently observed with NSAID treatment and were similar across groups (nsNSAIDs: 52.0%; celecoxib: 52.9%). Twelve unique patients experienced a total of 18 serious AEs; the most frequent were infections, and none was attributed to NSAID use. CONCLUSIONS: The safety profile of celecoxib and nsNSAIDs appears similar overall. The results from this registry, ongoing pharmacovigilance, and the phase 3 trial that led to the approval of celecoxib for children with JIA provide evidence that the benefit-risk for celecoxib treatment in JIA remains positive. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT00688545

Herschel observations of extra-ordinary sources: Detecting spiral arm clouds by CH absorption lines

We have observed CH absorption lines ($J=3/2, N=1 \leftarrow J=1/2, N=1$) against the continuum source Sgr~B2(M) using the \textit{Herschel}/HIFI instrument. With the high spectral resolution and wide velocity coverage provided by HIFI, 31 CH absorption features with different radial velocities and line widths are detected and identified. The narrower line width and lower column density clouds show `spiral arm' cloud characteristics, while the absorption component with the broadest line width and highest column density corresponds to the gas from the Sgr~B2 envelope. The observations show that each `spiral arm' harbors multiple velocity components, indicating that the clouds are not uniform and that they have internal structure. This line-of-sight through almost the entire Galaxy offers unique possibilities to study the basic chemistry of simple molecules in diffuse clouds, as a variety of different cloud classes are sampled simultaneously. We find that the linear relationship between CH and H$_2$ column densities found at lower $A_V$ by UV observations does not continue into the range of higher visual extinction. There, the curve flattens, which probably means that CH is depleted in the denser cores of these clouds.Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A, HIFI Special Issu

Reversal of infall in SgrB2(M) revealed by Herschel/HIFI observations of HCN lines at THz frequencies

To investigate the accretion and feedback processes in massive star formation, we analyze the shapes of emission lines from hot molecular cores, whose asymmetries trace infall and expansion motions. The high-mass star forming region SgrB2(M) was observed with Herschel/HIFI (HEXOS key project) in various lines of HCN and its isotopologues, complemented by APEX data. The observations are compared to spherically symmetric, centrally heated models with density power-law gradient and different velocity fields (infall or infall+expansion), using the radiative transfer code RATRAN. The HCN line profiles are asymmetric, with the emission peak shifting from blue to red with increasing J and decreasing line opacity (HCN to H$^{13}$CN). This is most evident in the HCN 12--11 line at 1062 GHz. These line shapes are reproduced by a model whose velocity field changes from infall in the outer part to expansion in the inner part. The qualitative reproduction of the HCN lines suggests that infall dominates in the colder, outer regions, but expansion dominates in the warmer, inner regions. We are thus witnessing the onset of feedback in massive star formation, starting to reverse the infall and finally disrupting the whole molecular cloud. To obtain our result, the THz lines uniquely covered by HIFI were critically important.Comment: A&A, HIFI special issue, accepte